Thursday, September 23, 2010

Bull Market or BS?

S&P's first attempt at 1,150 failed 2 days ago as the index was stalled at 1,149 and has since dropped 24 points to close at 1,125 today, below the critical 1,130 level. If you had been bullish as I had been for the past month (see "Turning Bullish! Resilience in Tech Shares and Sell-off in Treasuries Stir Optimism!"),  you have to re-consider your positions here. While I am not ready to exit my longs as I am awaiting more bearish confirmation, I did buy some puts today because they were still cheap. Not surprisingly, tomorrow is going to be a very important day as the market should decide which way it wants to go for the next couple weeks. A close below 1,130 again will undoubtedly push the index to its 200-day moving average (1,117). A close above 1,130 will likely drive the index towards 1,150 again.

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