Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Just Quickly Reiterating What I Wrote About Chinese Stocks 6 Months Ago

Since July 5th, Chinese stocks are up ~30%!

Date: Wed, 19 May 2010 19:13:38 -0400

few reasons why im bullish....

M2 money growth of 25% last year means inflation is coming, if not HYPER inflation

now let's see where they can put their money

real estate = negative, because they have already OVERdone it
deposits = negative, real interest rate will be negative given record low interest rates
gold = slightly positive, but chinese are already largest owner of gold, so you can argue this is sorta OVERowned as well
stocks = positive since inflation is good for stocks in general, some money out of real estate will flow into consumer industry, plus chinese love to pick bottom, and like it or not, the stock market is about 60% below peak in '07

anyways i was bored, but i do expect chinese stocks to be much higher from current levels by yearend

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